Моделювання перспективних систем аграрного вироб­ництва на меліорованих землях Волинського регіону

Abstract

Goal. To assess the level of profitability of modern crop production practices, to identify the factors influencing this indicator, and offer ways to increase net income from production activities in the reclaimed lands of Volyn. Methods. Multivariate simulation computer modeling of promising options for the development of agricultural production in the reclaimed lands of Volyn region was carried out with the help of the software package “Agroecosystem” using statistical data. Results. Modern agricultural production of crop specialization is characterized by a low level of profitability with significant fluctuations over the years. In the Volyn region on average for 6 years (2011–2016) net profit from growing crops was at the level of 170 USD/ha. The difference between sales revenue and production costs for growing winter wheat varies from 78 to 175 USD/ha with an average value of 134 USD/ha. The close relationship is determined between sales price and cost of grain, as well as the inverse relationship between these indicators and crop yields. This may indicate the existence of factors that limit the profitability of all producers of crop products at a certain level. Significant fluctuations in yield and profitability, on the other hand, are due to changing weather conditions, in particular the deterioration of favorable conditions for crops grown in the summer months, when the likelihood of moisture shortages has increased significantly. Therefore, there is a need for bilateral regulation of the water-air regime of the soil by modernizing reclamation systems. At the current level of net income, the expected amount of capital expenditures will pay off for too long. The transition to the principles of bioenergy diversified agricultural production will significantly increase its profitability with short payback periods. Conclusions. Intersectoral optimization based on restoration of the efficient operation of reclamation systems of the Volyn region, livestock development, flax cultivation and deep processing of raw materials for finished products and bioenergy requires capital expenditures at the level of 13000 USD/ha with an expected net profit of 8000–10000 USD/ha and the payback period of financial resources 2–3 years. Such production systems should be formed based on attracting large investment resources and creating associations of land users within the scope of reclamation systems.