Угольная отрасль Дальнего Востока России в условиях энергоперехода и санкционных ограничений

Abstract

It is shown that the development of the world coal market in the long term is determined by the intensity of the energy transition process. It has been determined that the traditional markets for Russian coal in Japan and the Republic of Korea may be lost by 2030 because of the active policies of these countries to transition their economies to carbon neutrality, related to the large-scale reduction of coal generation. The market niche for Russian coal in China in the 2035–2040 period may also be significantly reduced, both because of a general contraction in demand as the economy transitions to carbon neutrality, and as a result of increased competition with other suppliers and the country’s own production. This is also due to increased competition with other suppliers and our own production in the country India is the most promising market for Russian coal in the long term. Sanctions restrictions imposed on the Russian fuel and energy complex, partially supported by Japan and the Republic of Korea. They cause even higher rates of abandonment of Russian coal than expected because of the energy transition. China and India did not support the sanctions restrictions, which, in the face of the loss of traditional sales markets for Russia, made it possible to reorient most of the flows. The Far Eastern coal industry is characterized by more favorable development conditions compared to other regions of Russia. As a result, high industry performance indicators are observed for 2022 and 9 months of 2023, and project development continues. The key factor determining the dynamics of production in the coal industry in the mainland of the Far East is access to scarce infrastructure