Прогнозирование динамики пробега локомотивов с учетом влияния неисправностей и модернизаций узлов

Abstract

Purpose: To improve planning system for depot and factory repairs and for locomotive up-grades in the conditions of new rolling stock delivery on the basis of life-cycle contract by the way of the development and application of mathematical model for prognosing average daily and linear runs given the impact on run of technical-technological, seasonal and random fac-tors as well as defects, limiting junctions, and their upgrading. Methods: To achieve the set goal realization, the impact assessment for non-productive downtime of new locomotives at repairs as a result of clearing of junction defects and an equipment and of downtime in wait-ing for planned repairs on dynamics of average daily and linear runs was carried out. Based on the method of multidimensional spectral singular analysis and the prognosis of time series Multi-Channel Singular Spectrum Analysis, the mathematical model on run prognosis which algorithm for, has been embodied in integrated programming environment Visual Studio (2019) on C++ programming codes. Results: Run determination method given junction and equipment possible defects and given being planned upgrading has been proposed. Practical importance: In the conditions of life-cycle contract application which frames in, the participa-tion of locomotives and their components manufacturers in the technical support of supplied products throughout their entire service-life is implied, the usage of the proposed model at re-pair program monthly, quarterly and annual planning, would reduce the downtime in waiting for putting into a repair position on account of more accurate forecast, rationally distributed repairs, materials, stock of linear equipment between service manufactures.