Аналіз викликів та загроз на ринку нафтопродуктів у контексті національної безпеки

Abstract

In this work, based on the analysis of sources of information that are in the public domain, the major threats and challenges to the petroleum products market in the context of national security are identified. The concept of national security, its connection with other types of security and the place of the market of petroleum products in these relations are considered. A model of relations between the petroleum products market in the circle of national security has been built. For the petroleum products market of Ukraine, an analysis of factors that are threats and challenges both common to all countries and specific to Ukraine is carried out. The study identifies the main threats to the petroleum products market in Ukraine, including: the possibility of losing supplies due to the lack of medium-term and long-term contracts; intersection of interests of exporting and importing countries, which is reflected in their use of specific means of solving problems; blockade of ports, destruction of existing petroleum depots; the difficulty of creating a stock of petroleum products due to the vulnerability of warehouses or petroleum depots; problems with own production of petroleum products due to the destruction or damage of existing facilities for production of petroleum products and the vulnerability of places of extraction of raw materials for petroleum products; almost complete dependence on imports; political pressure on the petroleum products market both from exporting countries and domestic political pressure. The challenges to the market include the growth of the logistics leverage, the change in the preferences of buyers from gasoline in favor of diesel fuel and the rupture of previous logistic chains with the need to create new, as well as unplanned changes in transportation due to changes in the situation at the State borders. There is also a growing demand for the use of rail and sea transport for the supply of petroleum products to the markets of Ukraine. In this regard, an additional challenge is to pursue a reasonable pricing policy in these conditions in order to prevent a sharp increase in prices in the petroleum products market.