ПРОАКТИВНЕ ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ ВПЛИВУ ДОСВІДУ УПРАВЛІННЯ ПОВІТРЯНИМ РУХОМ НА СТАВЛЕННЯ ДО РИЗИКУ

Abstract

Considering the long negative influence of the human factor on flight safety, ICAO has been orienting the leadership and specialists of state aviation administrations and airlines to the proactive prevention of this phenomenon, demanding flight safety effective management "by indicators". These indicators in terms of professional activity of air traffic controllers (ATC) are defined: the relation to the risk (the main decision-makers and controversial estimates of SOP's violations), levels of claims, preferences systems, and dangerous behavior strategies, operational thinking and decision making that, in contrast to formally computational methods reflect the implementation of the methodology of psychological decision theory and cognitive psychology. The main decision-making dominants (inclination, disinclination, and indifference to risk) are revealed in the process of proactive decision by the controllers of closed decision-making tasks by constructing, with the help of special artificial lotteries and a limited number of points, the utility functions of the continuity of aircraft separation standards in the horizontal plane. For the separation standard S = 20 km, the proportion of students-controllers (n = 128 persons) of inclined (INC), indifferent (IND) and disinclined to risk (D) was detected: INC:IND: D ↔ 5: 18: 105 ↔ 3.9%: 14.1%: 82.0% ↔ 1: 3.6: 21, which indicates their desire to avoid failures in their professional activities. Therefore, the quantitative indicator of demonstrated risk aversion increases with the complication of the separation standard (reducing the distance between aircraft). For the separation level S = 10 km it is established: INC:IND: D ↔ 5: 8: 115 ↔ 3.9%: 6.3%: 89.8% ↔1: 3.6: 21. In professional controllers (n = 70 persons), for the separation standard S = 20 km, the ratio of persons with different dominance of decision-making was found: IND: INC ↔ 9: 25: 36 ↔ 12.9%: 35.7%: 51.4 % ↔1: 2.8 : 4, which indicates an overwhelming demonstration of their motivation to achieve success in the same working conditions. The motivation increases with the complexity of the separation standard: for S = 10 km it is established: D: IND: INC ↔ 4: 18: 48 ↔ 5.7%: 25.7%: 68.6% ↔ 1: 4.5: 12. It is recommended to apply the obtained results during the organization of the person-oriented training of young dispatchers aiming at developing stable skills for making rational risk decisions.