ЛОГИТ-МОДЕЛИ В АНАЛИЗЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНЫХ ФАКТОРОВ НА МЕЖРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ

Abstract

One of the manifestations of the uneven socioeconomic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is interregional population movements. These processes in some regions may be persistently negative and hinder economic development. Therefore, the task of managing migration processes becomes urgent. Different approaches are used to model and predict migration. Traditional is the use of econometric methods, within which, based on statistical data, quantitative characteristics of the influence of factors on migration processes are established. But in conditions of significant external shocks, the impact of factors can change significantly, which makes it difficult to obtain statistically significant model parameters. The paper presents logistic models for predicting not the quantitative characteristics of population movement in the region, but the fact of migration growth or outflow. Data on migration in 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2015–2022 are used as initial data. The study identified social factors that significantly influence the migration influx of people into the region. It has been established that the growth of these factors increases the likelihood of a migration influx of population into the region. The impact may be felt this year and next. The resulting models have good predictive properties and can be used to solve the problem of reducing the migration outflow of the population in the regions.