Тень санкций: стратегические последствия различий в санкционной политике США и России

A Stulberg,J Darsey

doi:10.17994/it.2021.19.1.64.7

Abstract

Economic sanctions have been the defining feature of the relationship between Russia and the U.S. / EU since the 2014 Ukraine crisis, and both Moscow and Washington appear to accept that sanctions will remain in place indefinitely. This persistence of sanctions presents a paradox: Western policy makers have repeatedly increased the breadth and depth of these sanctions, despite little evidence that the sanctions have ‘worked’ to achieve their explicit and tangible objectives. This paper examines the nature and origin of this paradox using a multi-dimensional examination of Russian and US actions and discourse since the first imposition of Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia in March 2014. This analysis exposes fundamental differences over how the two sides perceive the appropriateness and strategic context of these sanctions, which reflect a basic difference in worldviews between Moscow and Washington. These contending worldviews potentially compound burdens of uncertainty and costly signaling in sanctions between the U.S. and Russia, which also introduces cross-domain risks that can defy efforts to fine-tune the imposition of costs. If not redressed, this dynamic can derail efforts at strategic reengagement, if not inadvertently elevate prospects for dangerous escalation.

Highlights

Economic sanctions have been the defining feature of the relationship between Russia and the U.S / EU since the 2014 Ukraine crisis, and both Moscow and Washington appear to accept that sanctions will remain in place indefinitely
By linking texts to social contexts, discourse analysis illuminates how actors construct meaning and appropriateness from the artifacts of sanctions around them. This raises the question of whether contending strategic conceptions translate into real-world differences in the signals that Russian and non-Russian policymakers intend to send when they impose and respond to economic sanctions, such as the sanctions that the EU and U.S have imposed on Russia since March 2014
Together with recent scholarship on the relationship between sanctions and war, we found that the significant differences we observed between Western and Russian communities of scholars and related research on sanctions resonate with how the Russian press portrays U.S.Russia relations and the statements made by Russian elites concerning Western sanctions

Summary

Introduction

Economic sanctions have been the defining feature of the relationship between Russia and the U.S / EU since the 2014 Ukraine crisis, and both Moscow and Washington appear to accept that sanctions will remain in place indefinitely. For example, that the Kremlin is more prone to practicing “differentiated retaliations” with its counter-sanctions, aimed less at leveraging economic advantage against vulnerable Western targets than at exacting maximum punishment against the states that Russia perceives as the main drivers of antiRussian policies – such as its nearest neighbors and the U.S – while minimizing strategic damage to important European major powers such as the UK, France, Germany, and Italy [Hedberg 2018].

Results

Conclusion