УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ МЕТОДОЛОГІЇ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ І МОНІТОРИНГУ ОКРЕМИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ ФІНАНСОВОЇ СТІЙКОСТІ БАНКІВСЬКОЇ УСТАНОВИ

Abstract

Justification of expediency of improvement of methodology of forecasting and monitoring of indicators of financial stability of commercial banks for the purpose of increase in stability of credit institution, prevention, prevention and minimization of influence of the destabilizing factors on functioning and development of bank. Technique. The methodology has been improved through the use of economic and mathematical modelling tools for selected indicators of financial sustainability. Results. The need for continuous monitoring of the bank's financial sustainability indicators to ensure its stable functioning under the influence of numerous risks of various origins has been proved. Among the existing standards of stability and stability of the commercial bank, the norm of equity adequacy has a special role. It is on the volume of equity that the ability of a credit institution to timely calculate its obligations, compensate for unforeseen losses and minimize business risks depends. Regardless of the level of development of the banking system of the countries of the world, there are requirements in national legislation to ensure the minimum necessary level of the bank's equity. Due to the need to maintain a certain level of equity adequacy, it is necessary to constantly monitor and predict its level and individual indicators of the bank's activities, which directly affect the level of equity adequacy. The improvement of the forecasting methodology is based on the use of trend extrapolation methods, helps to identify the boundaries of forecasting and, on this basis, to develop alternative scenarios for ensuring and maintaining a sufficient level of financial stability. Scientific novelty. The feasibility of using trend extrapolation methods for forecasting and monitoring selected indicators of financial sustainability of commercial banks is justified. Practical significance. The results of the study are practically applied and can be used by banks and other credit institutions in the development of strategies and current plans to ensure the stability and sustainability of the institution, as well as compliance with statutory standards of activity