КОЛЕБАНИЕ МАДДЕНА - ДЖУЛИАНА В КОНТЕКСТЕ ВНУТРИСЕЗОННОЙ ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТИ, ДАЛЬНИХ СВЯЗЕЙ И ПРЕДСКАЗУЕМОСТИ

Abstract

The paper discusses issues related to the main features of subseasonal variability in the tropics, as well as the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. To identify weather patterns in the tropics, the RMM (Real-time Multivariate) index proposed by M. Wheeler and H. Hendon is used. Teleconnection indices are used to quantify atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The analysis of variance leads to the conclusion that there are teleconnections between the weather patterns in the tropics and the mid-latitudes at time intervals of about 5-7 days, which are most clearly pronounced in the Pacific-North American region, as well as in Asia. The MJO effect on the circulation in the Euro-Atlantic sector is quite complex and requires consideration of additional factors, in particular, the circulation in the stratosphere and El Niño events. Using the INM-CM5 climate model (Russia), the potential of predicting the MJO over a three-week time interval is demonstrated. The results are expected to be used in the operational practice of the North Eurasia Climate Center.