Стратегический анализ межстрановых торговых конфликтов на примере экономик ведущих стран и IT-индустрии

Abstract

The difficult-to-control processes caused by trade wars and sanctions can be analyzed only post factum, since the large-scale state-level decisions need time to take effect. Modern trade-war methods usually include a collective pressure on the competing country, and the economic leverage is accompanied by the power politics. In recent years, national economies have undergone many crises, trade conflicts, and black swan events. The International Monetary Fund predicts no return to former economic growth rates. The IT industry is an advanced digitalization driver and a promising direction for state investments. The sphere of IT technologies will also have to adjust to the new circumstances. This study focuses on the IT industries of the world’s leading economies and the sanctions policy of the recent years. The research relied on domestic and international scientific papers, analytical reports, statistical collections, and expert assessments related to the topic of international trade wars, political sanctions, and the IT industry. The author considered international trade conflicts both diachronically and synchronically. The current state of the leading economies was described in terms of their GDP. Some experts report the low effectiveness of full-scale sanctions in defending political and economic interests. Since Western Europe and the United States were responsible for most trade wars in the past, they probably find this mechanism beneficial in conducting a dialogue with their opponents. The author believes that the IT industry will be able to adapt to the new economic reality as the era of the unipolar world imposed by the United States is fading into history, triggering inevitable changes in the international economic relations.