Тренды современной динамики цивилизации: от «пределов роста» к «устойчивому развитию» (к 50-летию первого доклада Римскому клубу)

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the 50th publication anniversary of the book “The limits of growth”. The author summarizes the conceptual results associated with the basic thesis of the study presented in March 1972 in the form of the first report to the Club of Rome: unless the humanity radically changes the traditional expansion of growth, it will collapse due to the result of uncontrolled demographic processes, degradation of the natural environment and deficit of food resources. Overcoming the crisis trends in world dynamics is associated with an increase in the level of development of civilization to the stage of “organic growth” – the harmonious interaction of the constituent elements of the system when its evolution comes based on qualitative rather than quantitative changes. The article shows the relationship between the ideas of the Club of Rome and the principles of sustainable development of civilization, the implementation of which, from “Rio-92” (UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992) to “Rio+20” (UN Conference on Sustainable Development, Rio de Janeiro, June 2012), allows us to expect constructive changes in the foreseeable future.