ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВЕРОЯТНОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ ХОБЛ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ СТАЖА КУРЕНИЯ ЖЕНЩИН ФЕРТИЛЬНОГО ВОЗРАСТА

Abstract

Introduction. The article presents the results of assessing the likelihood of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depending on the history of smoking and the number of cigarettes smoked per day by women of fertile age. Aim. The aim is to establish the probability and degree of influence of nicotine addiction on the formation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women of fertile age. Material and methods. А cohort of 107 smoking women of fertile age with varying degrees of nicotine dependence observed was studied: 53 patients are active smokers exposed to passive smoking at home (first group 1), 54 patients are active smokers without passive smoking (group 2). The control group - 42 non-smoking women who do not have chronic diseases. The reliability of the results was evaluated using nonparametric statistical methods (Statistica 10, Microsoft Excel 2010). Results and discussion. With smoking experience in the range from one year to ten years in the second group, the probability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease formation develops more slowly compared to that in the first group. This difference in probabilities is gradually decreasing from year to year. With ten years of smoking experience, the probabilities of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in both groups become equal, and then the situation changes to the opposite. In the first group, the probability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease begins to develop more slowly compared to the second group. The difference in probabilities is gradually decreasing from year to year, practically comparing with the smoking experience of twenty-two years.Conclusion. Passive smoking, in addition to active smoking, increases the nicotine load with the formation of more pronounced prerequisites for the pathogenetic processes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease development. The probability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease development in the second group decreases and it is possible that it is the number of cigarettes (from 10 to 16 cigarettes per day) more than passive smoking that is the main factor in the development of the disease. When overcoming the 11-year interval, regardless of the absence of passive smoking, the predominant factor is the smoking experience of 20 or more years.