Теоретико-методологічні засади дослідження впливу зовнішньоекономічних чинників на економічну безпеку регіонів України

Abstract

The relationship between the components of regional economic security and their dependence on changes taking place in the external environment is analyzed. It is proved that such components of regional economic security as foreign trade, productive, scientific and technological, and investment components are directly influenced by foreign economic factors, as these life spheres are subject to the rise of primary effects or consequences of external factors. A five-step methodology to study the way foreign economic factors influence regional economic security is developed. At the first step, external environment is analyzed, and a system of indicators is formed taking into account relevant external factors influencing the components of economic security, where the primary effects of the impact of these factors are observed. The second step involves the following: determining the integrated indicator for each component of the regional economic security; assessing the impact of foreign economic factors produced on the change of the relevant integrated indicator by the sensitivity method; and ranking indicators according to the level of threats arising from the deterioration of the correspondence of their actual values to security criteria. The third step is only relevant for the most influential indicators directly related to foreign economic factors. Here, change forecasts are developed. The fourth step concerns indicators with a probability of less than 50% of the optimistic change forecast and more than 50% of the pessimistic change forecast, which requires justification of measures taken to optimize them and ensure compliance with economic security criteria. The fifth step is modeling economic security components for a short term period by the method of change forecasts using hypothetical values of indicators calculated on the basis of forecasting.