Управление системным водораспределением на основе экономико–математического моделирования и методов искусственного интеллекта

Abstract

Purpose: scientific substantiation of methodological and information support for decision-making on water distribution in inter-farm irrigation systems. Materials and methods. The studies were carried out at the Gorodischenskaya irrigation system, which is typical for the conditions of the arid Volgograd region. The methodological basis of the study was systematic, comparative, heuristic and mathematical-statistical approaches. The implemented methods of formalized decision-making support include mathematical optimization, as well as forecasting the expected result, including on the basis of artificial intelligence methods. Results. Methodological approaches to planning system water distribution under conditions of water scarcity or under limited production and economic conditions are considered. The analysis of the methodology on managerial decision-making support based on artificial intelligence methods is carried out. The main requirements for the priority methods of information support of control actions are determined, including their practical applicability, rationality of the planned results, as well as ensuring sufficient accuracy of solving the optimization problem. Criteria for optimizing water distribution planning under conditions of low-water irrigation source or with limited production and economic conditions are systematized. It has been determined that using mathematical modeling and artificial intelligence contributes to the development of information technologies for optimizing water distribution. A basic economic-mathematical model including the gross output as a target function has been developed and tested. Conclusions. Testing the model on the materials of the Gorodischenskaya irrigation system data showed the possibility of increasing production up to 78.8 thousand rubles/ha. This is achieved by improving the quality of planning and management of water distribution under the conditions of water scarcity in the Lower Volga region.