Abstract
Return levels of the major climatic stressors affecting the level of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Leningrad region are evaluated. Based on data from 26 ob-serving stations located in 18 municipal units, a cluster analysis has been carried out allowing for classification of the territory according to the degree of influence of climatic conditions on the pathology of cardiovascular system. A projection of future changes in the selected climate indica-tors for the mid and end of the XXI century is conducted. The projection is based on the ensem-ble of climate change simulations using the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory regional cli-mate model under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that the main future threats due to the changing climate are associated with an increase in mortality from cardiovascular diseases connected with the projected increase in the intensity of the heat waves. The relevancy to take into account climate warming when it comes to developing a strategy for combating cardiovascu-lar diseases in municipal units is emphasized.
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