Abstract
The purpose of the study is assessment of impact of political factors, such as electoral cycles and ideological range of parliament on systematic deviations of actual revenues of the Russian federal budget from its planned values. The study consists of two stages. On the first stage the quality of federal budget revenue forecast on the period from 2000 to 2022 is made (actual value of revenue is compared with planned one in the first version of the budget law). It is shown that official federal revenue forecasts are characterized with statistically significant under-prediction. The second stage is the empirical assessment of potential factors impact on pessimism in revenue forecasting. The following results of the conducted evaluation are proposed: federal electoral cycles are not statistically significant and ideological structure of the parliament is weakly significant factors of revenue forecasts quality. The result of the study gives the motivation for further investigation of key actors’ incentives during budget forecasting.
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