Abstract
The article presents a stochastic model of runoff with a five-day discreteness within the water management years. The analysis performed regarding the main statistical characteristics of the inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir has allowed the conclusion that this model, based on a simple Markov chain, satisfies the balance accuracy of hydrological calculations for operational regulation of the runoff. The performed verification calculations have shown that the proposed method for obtaining medium-term runoff forecasts for 5 days, based on the developed stochastic runoff model, is satisfactory to the criteria of efficiency and accuracy of hydrological forecasting methods used in Russia. The specific example has shown that a stochastic runoff model can be useful to decision-makers regarding the operational management of a reservoir in real time.
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