АЛГОРИТМ ПОПЕРЕДНЬОЇ ОЦІНКИ ДОСТОВІРНОСТІ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНИХ ПРОЕКТІВ У БУДІВЕЛЬНІЙ ГАЛУЗІ В УМОВАХ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

Abstract

Abstract. The construction industry is exposed to high risks, which cannot be ignored in case of large investments. The choice of a reliable investment and construction project is important for the success of the investor. A reliable choice of investment and construction project requires taking into account many uncertainties for decision-making. The investor has to be aware of the risks related to the implementation of investment and construction projects, as well as the level of involvement of all the uncertainties in the overall risk of investing in a particular project. These factors may be related to the economic environment, the public policy, mood of the social environment, the market, etc. Accordingly, factor-based decision-making is a vital process that should be considered when alternative investment and construction projects are being assessed. As the construction industry is characterized by long investment cycles, it is a dynamic, complex system with uncertain, incomplete data, as a consequence of a fundamental practical problem when applying investment-selection models construction projects are to determine the distribution of uncertainties to calculate the reliability of the projects. More recently, most approaches to pre-selection investment and construction projects have been presented using linguistic estimates instead of numerical values. This article presents a multi-criteria decision-making methodology for analysis and selection of the most reliable investment and construction project under the conditions of risk and uncertainty. This approach is based on the theory of fuzzy sets, which has the advantage of using linguistic estimates and precise for qualitative and quantitative assessments respectively.