Математическая модель анализа и прогнозирования экономических процессов, связанных с теневым денежным потоком

Abstract

The structure of the article allows us to reveal the main content of the proposed mathematical model of analysis and forecasting of economic processes associated with shadow cash flow. The mathematical model of the shadow cash flow is a set of equations and mathematical relations reflecting the main properties of the shadow cash flow and the features of its distribution in the banking environment at the spatial and temporal boundaries of the area of its formation. Based on the review of the main provisions of the scientific literature, the concept of illegal economic benefits extracted by economic entities is revealed, a comparative analysis of the concept of “shadow economy” and “shadow cash flow” is carried out. The calculation formula of the shadow cash flow is disclosed. Based on the theoretical concept of mathematical modeling, the qualitative characteristics of the proposed mathematical model are determined according to the following characteristics: the complexity of the modeling object, the model operator / model implementation method, input and output parameters, the purpose of modeling, the displayed properties of the object. The conclusion is reasoned that the proposed system of shadow cash flow indicators characterizes the qualitative aspects of the shadow economy indicator and should be taken into account when developing Russia’s economic policy. Approbation of the proposed algorithm for calculating the shadow cash flow was carried out on the basis of the described formulas when modeling the information and analytical system: “The spectrum of the distribution of shadow cash flow”.