Выезд на учебу как продленная утечка мозгов: «стремление к» или «бегство от»?

Abstract

In the context of the problem of the dynamics of intellectual losses in Russia, the structure of the main flows of outbound educational migration is determined on the basis of quarterly data from the FSB border service for the period from 2010 to the second quarter of 2023, broken down by goals and host countries. Aggregated statistics do not allow us to isolate the shares of different age groups or holders of different levels of formal education among those leaving the country, to determine returnable and irrevocable migration losses. However, the assessment of the stability or variability of the quantitative and qualitative aspects of outbound migration flows allowed us to test the null hypothesis of the absence of significant changes before and after the start of the special warfare. In the first quarter of 2022, the inertia of Russians’ orientation towards European education was still preserved, the blocked access to which during the pandemic created a situation of deferred demand. Germany and the United Kingdom maintained leading positions among foreign countries in terms of the number of Russians who left. Over the past year and a half, the flow to European countries has dried up, Turkey, the UAE and Kazakhstan have taken the first places, and the intensity of outflow to the leading country, measured on average per quarter, has increased 1.5 times. Accordingly, migration flows are transformed as a result of changes in the geopolitical situation after the start of special warfare, not only in quantitative terms, but also in qualitative terms (at the level of the composition of recipient countries), which indicates the dominance of non-academic motivation to leave the country.