Анализ вариаций в движении Северного полюса для повышения точности координатно-временных определений

Abstract

This article considers a method for predicting the coordinates of the north pole, taking into account the influence of trend, quasi-periodic, regular and high-frequency variations. The necessary graphic material is given, illustrating the picture of the listed variations from 2000 to the present. In particular, a regular change in the amplitude of the Chandler period (СP) is shown. So, from 2006 to 2017, the amplitude of the СP gradually decreases from the maximum to zero, and from 2020 to the present, it has been steadily increasing. Based on the analysis of the behavior of trend changes in the pole coordinates, it is shown that at present the movement of the average pole is directed towards the Greenwich meridian, and not towards North America, as it is given in a number of literary sources. The practical implementation of the proposed method resulted in the creation of programs for predicting the coordinates of the pole and Universal Time for periods from one to 90 days. At the same time, the accuracy of forecasts calculated using these programs exceeds the accuracy of similar forecasts posted on the website of the International Earth Rotation Service. The problem of high-precision prediction of the coordinates of the pole and the Universal Time has now acquired particular relevance, especially in the light of the adopted Federal Target Program for the development of GLONASS up to 2030. In the field of improving the accuracy of ephemeris-time support (ETS).