Наслідки повномасштабної російсько-української війни для позиціонування Тримор’я в глобальній політиці

Abstract

The article discusses the term “Three Seas Initiative” – a product of the adaptation of the philosophical and geographical category “Intermarium” to the description of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The thesis is substantiated that the application of the category “Intermarium” to Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe is due not only to the “mental geography” of Polish political thought and the practical needs of Polish geopolitics of the 20th and 21st centuries but also to the objectively existing general characteristics of the region (its buffer status between geopolitical powers of Germany and Russia, the lower level of prosperity of this region compared to Western Europe, its predominantly Slavic character, which repeatedly pushes the implementation of pan-Slavist projects in the Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, the trends in social, in particular, cultural, economic and political, which are observed at least since the late 1980s). It is argued that the project “Three Seas Initiative” by A. Duda is a modern reincarnation of the idea of the Prometheists – “Intermarium”, created between the two world wars on the basis of the Jagiellonian idea of the Early Modern Age. This project arose as an opposition of rightwing conservative, poorer EU members to its left-liberal, rich participants with external support from the Eurosceptic, right-wing populist government of D. Trump in the USA. However, the evolution of the Three Seas Initiative finally led it to institutionalization as one of the cores of integration in the modern European Union at different speeds, with an emphasis on the development of cross-border communication and infrastructure projects in the region with the cooperation of the EU and the USA. It is emphasized that after the start of the Russian- Ukrainian war, the threat of its spread to the territory of the “Three Seas Initiative”, which the EU cannot overcome, forces the members of the initiative to seek direct military support from the United States in exchange for Washington’s support in its opposition to Beijing, an ally of Moscow. “Three Seas Initiative” could be perceived as an activation of the role of the region as one of the outposts of opposition to Chinese influence on the planet. In addition, the Russian- Ukrainian war involuntarily led to the achievement of one of the goals of the Three Seas Initiative - the development of the logistics infrastructure of its participants, due to the need to serve large-scale land and air movements of troops and the functioning of “grain” and humanitarian corridors from the European Union to Ukraine. Also, a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war caused the resuscitation and development of the military-industrial complex of the Three Seas Initiative countries, its integration within the region and the rest of the EU, as well as with Ukraine, the USA, and South Korea, which gives a chance for high-tech economic growth of the participants of the project.