Анализ динамики селей на фоне климатических изменений в высокогорной зоне Кабардино-Балкарии

Abstract

The object of the study is a dangerous slope phenomenon (mudflow) in the mountains of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) against the background of changing climatic conditions of the warm season (May-September). The paper presents the results of statistical, frequency and regression analysis of the dynamics of the number of mudflows, precipitation amounts, and average temperatures in the high-mountain zone of the KBR in the period 1953–2015. Statistical analysis of time series was carried out using the SPSS 20.0 software package. Linear trends were generated using Excel built-in LINEST worksheet function. The efficiency (coefficient of determination R2 ) and quality of regression models in general and by parameters were assessed using the Fisher test (F) and their significance (Sig.). The t-test was used to identify statistical equality or inequality of means between two periods. It was found that in the period 1953–2015 there was a slight increase in precipitation and average temperature. When analyzing the statistics of series in two periods 1953–1984 and 1984–2015, it was found that the average and total characteristics of the number of mudflows, precipitation and temperatures increase in the second period. Frequency analysis showed that out of 499 cases of mudflows over 63 years, 32% occurred in 9 cases per season (May-September). Frequency analysis confirmed the homogeneity of the distribution of precipitation amounts: in almost 60% of cases, the precipitation amount varies in a narrow range from 92.7 mm to 104.1 mm. For a number of temperatures, the most common (37%) was the average temperature of the warm season t = 10.2 °C; 31% corresponded to the temperature range from 10.7 °C to 11.8 °C. The analysis allows us to talk about an increase in the frequency of dangerous slope phenomena against the background of modern climate change, including in the high mountains.