Методический подход к развитию розничного банковского бизнеса на основе корреляционно-регрессивного анализа

Abstract

The crisis of financial globalization increases uncertainty, contributes to the emergence of new risks, so the strategy of development banks in the Russian regions, focused on domestic resources, should be formed on the basis of pre-calculable scenarios of socio-economic development for certain conditions. In banking activities are widely used various models based on the mathematical apparatus. The study shows the absence of works using econometric techniques to develop a methodical approach to the development of the retail banking business. The aim of the study is to assess the relationship between loans granted to non-financial organizations and individuals, and the amount of bank deposits / deposits volume / volume of deposits. The study used annual values of the variables for the period 01.01.2007-01.01.2013, for analysis were available 79 observations of official statistics of the Bank of Russia for each year. The article presents the methodological proposals to improve the retail banking business on the basis of regression analysis where identified are the relationships between the primary source of bank resources and the volume of lending in regional banking markets. The resulting form of relation of the retail banking business in the form of regression equations with multiple variables can be used as a banking methodology to evaluate the potential of credit institutions in the event of a recession or boom in the economy, as well as to predict and develop a strategy. Knowing the form of communication, it is possible to predict at what value will be raised lending activity, if the amount of deposits, for example, increases by only 1%, and to assess the potential of credit institutions in the event of a recession or boom in the economy.