ДИНАМИКА ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ МИГРАЦИИ МОЛОДЕЖИ НОВГОРОДСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ: ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ЗА ПОСЛЕДНИЕ ГОДЫ

Abstract

The article, based on demographic statistics, analyzes the dynamics of the number of youths aged 14 to 34 years in the Novgorod region from 2018 to 2023. The topic of demographic reproduction of youth has recently acquired relevance, since during this period there has been a decrease in the number of youths in the region, which tends to increase in the near future. One of the mechanisms for maintaining the number of young people is the migration of high school stu-dents and young professionals to the region as part of interregional and international migration. Therefore, the purpose of the work is to study the demographic development, scale and direction of migration movements of youth groups in the Novgorod region. Youth migration data over the past three years show an increase in the number of young people aged 15-24 arriving in the region. However, the scale of negative migration growth in the age groups of 25-29 years and 30-34 years, recorded in 2022, raises concerns. A comparison of interregional and international youth migration flows makes it possible to rank them, from which it can be seen that the former significantly pre-dominate in the region over the latter. Another of the tasks set in the work is to analyze the dynam-ics of the population group under 14 years of age, since in the near future it will be precisely this that will influence the demographic processes in the youth group as a whole. From a comparative analysis of the children's group, it is clear that within it there are subgroups with differently directed demographic processes - the numerical decline of some and growth of other groups. The data obtained during the study can become the basis for developing models for predicting the process of youth migration in the region, as well as a topic for expert discussion of the complex impact of demographic processes on the education system and labor market in the region. To realize the pos-itive potential of educational and labor migration, the author proposes to concentrate on research activities to analyze groups of youth, the number of which will decline in the coming years.