Определение апостериорной вероятности травматизма при нарушении требований охраны труда в строительном производстве

Abstract

Construction is related to one of the most traumatic types of economic activity and is characterized by the significant involvement of financial and labor resources, as well as high production rates. In such conditions, the development of occupational health and safety management systems based on the risk management is relevant. Risk-based approach to the organizational decision-making on the basis of injury risk assessment and management is considered in the article. Methodology is proposed for calculating the probability of injury using the Bayesian approach, which links the probability of injury with the frequency of violations of the occupational health and safety rules. As part of study the state statistics on the causes of accidents over the past 11 years was collected and analyzed. As a result, 10 groups of typical violations of the occupational health and safety rules were identified and a priori probabilities of injury were calculated for these groups. The analysis of state statistics on the number of injuries over the past 10 years was carried out, based on which the probability of injuries in construction is calculated. The results are presented concerning the collection and analysis of the archival data by Severin Development on the number of violations of the occupational safety rules at 15 construction sites. 4557 violations that occurred in 11 106 days were processed. As a result, probabilities of the violations of the occupational safety rules were obtained using a robust data analysis method. To verify and clarify the results obtained, the expert surveys of managers and specialists in the field of occupational health and safety were conducted. Based on the adjusted a priori probabilities, the predicted posterior probabilities of the injuries in case of violation of the occupational health and safety requirements were calculated. In conclusion, the theoretical and practical significance of the study is given, its prospects are indicated.