ПІДХІД ДО РЕКЛАМИ НОВОГО ЛІКАРСЬКОГО ЗАСОБУ З ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ МЕТОДІВ ЕКОНОМІКО-МАТЕМАТИЧНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ

Abstract

The article analyzes the factors influencing the sale of innovative medicines, including the impact of advertising. The main purpose of the study is to determine the impact of advertising on an innovative drug in the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine, which was implemented through a review of recent scientific publications. The new drug is definitely an innovation. It has been studied that the spread of innovations occurs gradually among members of the social system through communication channels for their adaptation. With regard to product innovation, the process of deciding on their adaptation can be divided into five stages: knowledge, persuasion, acquisition, usage, loyalty. The economic essence of this topic is analyzed in detail, the legal framework for advertising of medicines in the media is considered and the economic-mathematical model for obtaining a relevant forecast is selected. It was also found that the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market is developing quite rapidly, but it lacks innovation. A review of pharmaceutical market threats also found that although the pharmaceutical industry is highly dynamic, it lacks innovation. During the whole period of independence, Ukraine presented only 154 medicines of innovative character. Everything else is generic drugs, in addition, mostly of dubious quality. In modern enterprises, all investments go to the modernization of technological processes, rather than the production of new original drugs. That is why foreign manufacturers have better indicators of drug imports.Any marketing costs before launching a drug are an investment. Considered the types of promotion most suitable for advertising drugs. Therefore, the most known model of diffusion of innovations, compiled by Bass, can be used to model a specific economic and mathematical problem. The economic essence of Bass's model of diffusion of innovations is investigated. The correct method of calculation of this type of model has been selected, namely the AnyLogic software environment, which is suitable for research and calculation of parameters of system dynamics models. The study predicted future sales of the drug using data from previous sales. During the research and use of the Bass innovation model, a forecast of future sales for 10 months was formed.