Применение социологического опроса для оценки качества прогнозов лавинной опасности в Иле Алатау

Abstract

The results of assessing the quality of avalanche danger forecasts based on data from a sociological survey are considered. The avalanche danger forecast was compiled using a method developed at the Institute of Geography and Water Security, using artificial intelligence. The level of avalanche danger was assessed on an international 5-point scale. The avalanche danger forecast was distributed on social networks in the form of an avalanche bulletin. To assess the quality of avalanche forecasts, a sociological survey was conducted among users. The survey involved 214 people - tourists, climbers and skiers. It turned out that 93% of respondents regularly watch avalanche danger forecasts, and 71% of respondents are ready to refuse to go to the mountains if the level of avalanche danger is high. The majority of consumers (82%) positively assess the work of the avalanche service in Kazakhstan.