Анализ влияния монетарной и экономической политики на рост ВВП Российской Федерации в 2024–2025 годах

Abstract

The subject of the study is the influence of monetary and economic policies pursued by the Government of the Russian Federation on ensuring the economic stability of the country. The purpose of the work is to forecast real GDP growth due to the current wage policy, increasing household savings and supporting other demand factors based on correction and regression analysis, which makes it possible to find out between the characteristics under consideration and, if there is one, to calculate the measure of dependence using mathematical tools. To do this, it is proposed at the first stage to create an econometric model linking the growth of consumption and economic growth of the Russian Federation, at the second stage - to create and describe a model that allows us to consider the influence of the average nominal wage, the volume of lending to the population, the volume of savings and the level of inflation on the level of consumption in Russian Federation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in obtaining current data that allows us to identify the necessary level of the above factors to achieve the economic development planned by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and growth of real GDP. As a result of the study, it was concluded that such a factor as the inflation rate is insignificant for analyzing the current economic situation in Russia. When developing effective measures to achieve the desired level of economic growth, according to the constructed model, the level of average nominal wages and the volume of household deposits are of greater importance. The effectiveness of the use of monetary measures used by the Bank of Russia to stabilize the economy has been confirmed.