ОЦЕНКА АГРОМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ УСЛОВИЙ ПЕРЕЗИМОВКИ ОЗИМЫХ ЗЕРНОВЫХ КУЛЬТУР В АНОМАЛЬНО ТЕПЛЫХ ПОГОДНЫХ УСЛОВИЯХ 2019-2020 СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ГОДА

Abstract

The article analyzes the period of abnormally hot weather in the autumn and winter periods of 2019-2020 agricultural year, which was unprecedented and allowed the plants to overwinter successfully and even to go through a certain stage in their development and form a fairly high yield. It is a great anomaly with a typical return period of about 40 years. According to observations at Timiryazevsky agrometeorological post for 1990-2019, the average annual temperature increased by 1.04 ° С, atmospheric precipitation increased by 111.0 mm. The greatest increase of air temperature and atmospheric precipitation occurred in winter months. Analysis of wintering conditions for 2015-2020 agricultural years showed that positive temperature anomalies for the studied cold period of 2019-2020 reached up to 31.0 ° C. The amount of precipitation exceeded the average years long norms in November 2015 by 100 mm. Therefore, if earlier, the harvest of winter crops decreased due to freezing, as a result of snowlessness and severe frosts, then in recent years, soaking and asphyxiation played a certain role due to powerful snow cover. Such methods, as comparison, analysis and generalization of data, were used to process the analysis of the original data. To study the long-term changes of the periodic transformation function of the average annual temperature dynamics and the annual sum of atmospheric precipitation, the Fourier series was used and the parameters of the best sinusoidal approximation, the trend and the method of correlation, discriminant analysis were determined. The practical significance of the work was determined by the results of the research on the conditions for overwintering of winter crops and adaptation of agriculture to the changing conditions of the regional climate.