Количество штормов в некоторых морях России: тренды и связь с крупномасштабными атмосферными индексами

Abstract

Changes in the recurrence of extreme wind waves in the World Ocean are connected with the global climate change. The end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries are characterized by significant climate warming, the reduction of the Arctic sea ice and changes in the recurrence of various extreme meteorological events. The main motivation of this research is to assess the trends of storm recurrence for the time period from 1979 up to 2020 and to analyze the connection between storminess and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes. This research contains information about the number of storms that occurred in seven Russian Seas, including the Black, Caspian, Barents, Kara, Bering Seas, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan/East Sea. These seas are located in different climate conditions determined by the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans. The analysis of wave climate and storm activity is based on the results of wave modelling by WAVEWATCH III with input NCEP/CFSR wind and ice data. The mean plots, maximum, and 95% percentile sig-nificant wave heights are also presented in the research. Significant linear uptrends in the number of storms were found in the Kara, Caspian, Bering, Okhotsk Seas, and in the Sea of Japan. The relationship between the inter-annual variability of the number of storms and large-scale at-mospheric indexes is considered.