Abstract
In this work, the Monte Carlo method is used to determine the effectiveness of investments of Russian projects of the export of liquefied natural gas to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, namely Japan, China and South Korea. The volumes of capital costs for the construction of the facility, operating costs for the operation of the facility, the price of liquefied natural gas were chosen as free parameters in the application of the Monte Carlo method. To perform the work, a forecast of prices for liquefied natural gas in the Asia-Pacific region was made based on the forecast of prices for Brent crude oil. Furthermore, the paper presents a forecast of operating costs for the operation of the project until 2035. The result is to determine the economic efficiency of the Yamal LNG project. The application of the Monte Carlo method showed that the net present value of the project by 2035 is most likely to be about $ 22 billion. Such an excellent result was possible due to the significant tax benefits provided by the state in accordance with the program of development of the oil and gas industry in the Arctic part of Russia.
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