ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫХ КРУПНЫХ НЕФТЯНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ ПРИ РАЗЛИЧНЫХ СЦЕНАРИЯХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ЦЕНЫ НА НЕФТЬ

Abstract

The scientific work studies the influence of the dynamics of prices for hydrocarbons on the possibilities of implementing state projects in the oil industry of Russia. Also, the economic efficiency of oil projects in the Russian Federation is assessed under various cost scenarios, both in the short and long term. The aim of the study, the authors set out to build an objective model for the implementation of Russian state projects in the oil industry, based on 3 scenarios of changes in hydrocarbon prices until 2023 according to: basic, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The paper studies the experience of creating large oil projects in modern Russia and in other countries; the authors pay special attention to oil projects during periods of turbulence in oil price quotations, during the economic recessions of 2008, 2014–2016 and 2020. The prospects for the completion of current projects in Russia are also being assessed in the face of oversupply on hydrocarbon markets and turbulent prices for well-known oil brands. The scientific basis of the work is Russian and foreign sources, assessments of experts from the oil and gas complex of Russia and countries-exporters of hydrocarbons, analytics and reports of oil companies, state programs for the development of the oil industry of the Russian Federation and statistical bases of state statistics services. To construct objective development scenarios, forecasts were used from sources such as: the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank, the BP Statistical Database and the World Bank data, forecasts of large oil companies in Russia.