ИГРАЕТ ЛИ БОГ В КОСТИ? ПРИНЦИП ШПИЛЬРАУМА КАК ПОДХОД К ИССЛЕДОВАНИЮ ВЕРОЯТНОСТНЫХ СЮЖЕТОВ

Abstract

The article considers the principle of ranges (Spielraum) of J. von Kries and its interpretation by M. Weber to analyze the eventual plots in fiction. It draws upon the works of Russian authors, referred to the genre of alternative history. In the first step, the author, analyzing the approaches to the study of probabilistic plots, notes that, thanks to the works of researchers, probabilistic plots began to be considered on the basis of their own logic, and alternativity was justified as a manifestation of objective relations of reality. The application of new methodological tools and the inclusion of fiction stories into the source circulation, in the author’s opinion, will increase interest in this topic and will contribute to the resolution of some methodological problems. The author addresses J. von Kries’s Spielraum principle, which is interpreted as a range of objective possibilities of a hypothesis or event. Thanks to the adaptation of this tool to the historical knowledge by M. Weber, it is possible to analyze what the emerged or imposed patterns of different choices that create such consequences are. This involves comparing the causal components of a historical episode that are actually present with a fictional course of events where one or more components are imagined to be absent, and comparing it with some ideal type. Applying this interpretation to the analysis of probabilistic plots in fiction makes it possible to: 1) show and substantiate the subjectivity of the researcher’s view; 2) consider the possibilities of developing an “interpretive history”; and 3) evaluate the role of works of fiction as a source for analyzing the dynamics of historical consciousness.