Основные показатели заболеваемости населения, в том числе прогностические, в оценке репродуктивного потенциала региона.

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study conducted to study the main indicators of population morbidity from the perspective of assessing the reproductive potential of the region. Statistical, analytical, and graphological methods were used in the work. A key factor in the reproductive potential of a region is the level of health of its population, including morbidity rates. When developing measures to stimulate the birth rate, which is especially necessary for territories with the lowest rates of population reproduction, such as the Central Federal District and, in particular, the Kostroma Region, a detailed study of the regional characteristics of the health status of the population is necessary. It was determined that, according to predictive models, the incidence rate in the Kostroma region will increase from 701.1 per 1000 population in 2020 to 768.8 per 1000 population in 2025. To identify the relationship between indicators of the birth rate and morbidity in the Kostroma region for period 2010–2020 A cross-correlation analysis was carried out to reveal not only the degree and direction of the relationship between the analyzed indicators, but also the time lag. For the Kostroma region, according to the time series under consideration, no statistically significant relationship was found between the level of fertility and morbidity. There is a slight correlation (–0.3) between the analyzed indicators for the Kostroma region with a time lag of 6 periods, but it is not statistically significant and does not allow us to draw clear conclusions.