Развитие методологии анализа риска здоровью в задачах государственного управления санитарно-эпидемиологическим благополучием населения

Abstract

The article focuses on generalizing Russian scientific and methodical developments aimed at updating and supplementing the health risk assessment methodology. This methodology is a key component in tackling tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population. Russian approaches to risk assessment are shown to have a significant peculiarity, which is a wide use of methods of multidimensional statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, fuzzy logic, and their combinations. The most significant Russian scientific innovations include development of qualitative risk assessment, non-carcinogenic health risks included; severity of health disorders taken into account in risk assessment; methodical support for assessing integral risks under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors. Russian experts suggested and developed an idea that it was possible to model evolution of risks and their growth under changing exposures. Approaches to assessing risks evolution under long-term exposure to variable factors made it possible to solve a whole set of applied hygienic tasks. In addition to establishing qualitative characteristics of non-carcinogenic risks under exposure to chemicals, methods for assessing risks under exposure to environmental noise, certain lifestyle factors and factors related to work process have also been substantiated and implemented. Progressive development of the health risk assessment methodology ensured operative, smooth and effective transitions of control and surveillance activities performed by Rospotrebnadzor onto a fundamentally new control platform that relies on the risk-based model. Obviously, analytical opportunities offered by the health risk assessment methodology are extensive. Development of methodical grounds in hygiene and epidemiology as well as design of applied algorithms and approaches to risk assessment and management based on the fundamental methodology should involve several trends. We should extend our knowledge on mechanisms of health disorders under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors and work-related ones; hygienic standardization needs improvement; we should apply situational modeling and prediction of sanitary-epidemiological welfare under changing or preset conditions; we should provide substantiation for the strategic and tactical regulatory actions aimed at managing threats and risks. The experience accumulated in developing the health risk assessment methodology in variable spheres should be considered a starting point for creating new risk assessment and risk management technologies. They should give an opportunity to solve any tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population in the Russian Federation.