Методи та моделі оцінки енергетичного переходу на прикладі Житомирської об’єднаної територіальної громади

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The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in the Zhytomyr territorial community (TC), which provides for a switching from fossil carbon based energy resources in the current TC energy system functioning to 100% use of renewable energy sources (RES) which meets all energy demands and supports the Sustainable Development of TC in accordance with the relevant UN goals. For this purpose, the optimizational economic and mathematical TIMES-Zhytomyr model (no analogues in Ukraine), based on the TIMES-Ukraine model, was developed. It includes 647 energy technologies that are currently available or may be presented in the coming years in Ukrainian market. For the development of the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, a low-available local energy statistics was processed. As a result, the first energy balance by the form of the International Energy Agency for the large Ukrainian city and the basic energy-technological system of Zhytomyr TC were developed. Using the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, based on foreign and Ukrainian experience, for the first time, four scenarios of Zhytomyr TC energy system development were designed and modelled, covering all economic sectors and household sector (population). The first one is the Baseline scenario, which displays the possible dynamics of the energy system development without a purposeful energy efficiency policy, the development of RES, etc. Three other scenarios are aimed at studying TC’s transition capabilities by 2050 to 100% renewable energy and environmentally friendly technologies use. The results of modelling confirmed that the available renewable energy resource and technological potential allows Zhytomyr TC to perform the energy transition to 2050 in an economically feasible and socially acceptable way, significantly reducing energy and carbon intensity of the local economy, substantially eliminating GHG emissions, increasing the welfare of citizens and creating at least 10 thousand new workplaces. It will also significantly contribute to Zhytomyr TC to reach at least 10 of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals. The research results presented, due to a significant novelty and large-scale relevance of the task, are essential in both the theoretical and practical significance. They can be used by scientists for their research and by authorities and experts for development of local, regional or national level strategies, plans or programs of economic, energy, transport, climate and ecology scope. It can also be considered as one of the first steps in preparation of a comprehensive strategy for the Zhytomyr TC development to achieve climate neutrality in accordance with the current objectives of the European Union.