Abstract
Based on the factor of parametric modeling specifically given system “object — factors — protection worker” the problem of determining a quantitative measure of the possible implementation options (outcomes) of the occurrence of the incident was testedby: 1) construction of parametric and logical assumptions; 2) identifying their coherence in relation to the selected occurrence, and 3) calculating possible (fuzzy) measures of the occurrence of the incident taking into account the completeness and reliability of the initial data about the system. The numerical estimation of safety parameters in practically important region of analysis is given: the impact of “less” or “much less” susceptibility. The demonstration of the possible use of parametric models “impact — attenuation — sensitivity” in the range of occurrence of apical outcomes from injury (disease) to a critical, or death is given. It is shown that the proposed method of security analysis and the calculation algorithm is standardized and can be applied to assess both integral and differential risk of complex systems.
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