Подход к оценке динамики изменения энергопотребления в регионе на основе использования нечеткой логики

Abstract

Currently, energy efficiency indicators of regional infrastructure are presented as a rule in a quantitative form. However, decision makers need an assessment in a readable form to see the transition from a few quantitative values to a qualitative one that allows us in general to assess the dynamic patterns of energy consumption in the region. In this regard, the development of a method to assess the efficiency of energy consumption with linguistic recognition of the results obtained seems to be very relevant. The analysis is based on the retrospective values of indicators of the fuel and energy balances of the regions. The consolidated balance sheet includes about 500 indicator values for all used fuel and energy resources per year. To assess the multifactorial system under consideration, it is advisable to use the well-known matrix aggregation scheme, where the rows are the factors, and the columns are their qualitative levels. A standard five-level fuzzy 01-classifier is used as a scale for the transition from quantitative values of balance sheet indicators to qualitative values. A method is proposed to assess the dynamic pattern of energy consumption by means of linguistic recognition of a certain set of relative indicators of fuel and energy balances. Evaluation of the results in several regions using actual retrospective data has showed the relevance and reliability of the results obtained. At the same time, the results have been checked by methods of analysis and visualization of multidimensional data, as well as by experts. It has been established that the proposed approach to assess the efficiency of the use of fuel and energy resources can be used in the region policy of energy saving to improve the efficiency of decision-making.