ВЕРИФИКАЦИЯ РАЗРАБАТЫВАЕМОЙ ИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНОЙ СИСТЕМЫ ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ И УПРАВЛЕНИЯ МОРСКИМИ ГРУЗОПЕРЕВОЗКАМИ В АРКТИЧЕСКИХ УСЛОВИЯХ

Abstract

The paper highlights the issue of rapidly growing demand for sea cargo transportation in in the Arctic zone due to the development of the Russia Far East (the Northern Sea Route). The analysis of existing software and information resources in the field of sea cargo transportation has confirmed the need to create a transport and logistics system capable to optimize logistics operations in the Arctic zone of Russia and the subarctic zone of the Russian Far East. A visual version of fuzzy inference, the Mamdani fuzzy logic type, created using Matlab math package and GUIDE interactive tool is presented. The Mamdani fuzzy inference model and the fuzzy production rule base have been implemented using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Matlab math package. The necessity to customize the Mamdani fuzzy inference model based on the field data from navigators' reports has been explained. The analysis of ice-class vessels navigators' reports has been carried out, on the basis of which a training sample from the field data has been generated. Checking the adequacy of the Mamdani models based on data obtained using the database of navigators' reports has confirmed the possibility to use these models in any arctic and subarctic region of Russia. A multiple regression analysis has been conducted, as a result of which a predictive model has been built. The analysis of the predictive model has shown that the results of the Mamdani model are more accurate compared to the results of the multiple regression analysis. The customized Mamdani model is the main component of an intelligent system for calculating the efficiency of the organization of sea cargo transportation in the arctic conditions.