Связи изменений ледовой обстановки на Северном морском пути с движением планет Солнечной системы

Abstract

The paper considers the progress in the hydrographic support for navigation in various parts of the Northern Sea Route in terms of improving the methods for developing tentative forecasts of interannual changes of ice conditions. Among the approaches to solve the task the authors take into account factors that do not depend on the uncertainty of regional climate changes in the future. One of such factors is the main mechanical process in the Solar System — the orbital planetary motion. The paper goal is to confirm the existence of water areas in the seas under study, changes in the ice coverage of which in the summer-autumn period can be significantly associated with planetary orbital motion factor. The authors apply statistical methods to achieve the study goal. As factual material on changes in the ice coverage of the sections of the Northern Sea Route, they use information of GLORYS12v1 and ICDC global reanalysis databases for the period 1993—2019 and 1979—2020 respectively. As a result the authors have revealed locations of the water areas, for which the reliability of the conclusion about the significance of the relationship under consideration in certain months is at least 90%. They have stated that the reliability of such inference is the highest for some water areas of the East Siberian Sea in October and the Chukchi Sea in November. To confirm the suitability of the identified links for the development of tentative forecasts of trends in interannual changes in the ice conditions on the Northern Sea Route, the authors insist on additional testing to check the resistance to updating the actual material.