Исследование и разработка модели оценки оптимального расположения пешеходных переходов на базе конфликтной модели

Abstract

With the increase in the number of vehicles, the number of conflict situations between pedestrians and cars increases - the number of accidents increases. The study of walking behavior and the relationship of behavior with the location of pedestrian crossings will allow you to find the optimal solution for a pedestrian crossing. The proposed model for assessing the optimal location of pedestrian crossings based on the pedestrian -vehicle conflict model is based on three indicators: the likelihood of a conflict between a person and a vehicle, the severity of the accident and the expected number of conflicts. The model was developed in order to determine the optimal location of pedestrian crossings and to study the conflict between pedestrians and vehicles at unregulated pedestrian crossings. In order to take into account the pedestrian behavior in the proposed model, modeling was carried out using the SPSS software. Regression analysis formed the basis for modeling pedestrian behavior, and a model of a "bad solution" for an unregulated pedestrian crossing was obtained. To verify the reliability of the model and the accuracy of the forecast, a Hosmer-Lemeshowe test for suitability and an omnibus test of model coefficients were conducted. The overall accuracy of the model prediction was 97.6%, the accuracy rate with "bad behavior" is 95.7%, and the accuracy rate without "bad behavior" is 99.4%.