중국과 주변 접경국 간 경제 관계를 통해 본 북·중 경제 관계 평가

Abstract

This study poses the research question, “How would North Korea-China economic relations, which have traditionally been evaluated from a bilateral perspective, be different if they were evaluated from a multilateral standpoint with one of China’s bordering countries?”. Based on analysing of economic relations, including foreign trade between China and its 14 bordering countries and foreign direct investment in China’s 13 bordering countries, this study examines North Korea-China economic relations from a multilateral viewpoint. In conclusion, North Korea-China economic relations are seen to be based on the homogeneity of “socialism” and the strategic management of North Korea risks for China’s “core interests” and North Korea’s strategic interests of regime stability and economic development. Compared to the economic relations between China and its other bordering countries, the analysis does not reveal any differentiating factors that make the DPRK-China economic relationship a unique economic relationship based on the traditional bilateral relations of blood ties and nepotism. Rather, China has reaffirmed that it prioritizes its core interests in expanding economic ties with its bordering countries.
 Under President Xi Jinping’s third term, China’s internal and external projects, including the Belt and Road Initiative, a comprehensive version of the country’s open door policy, have gained more momentum under the umbrella of great nation building. Economic relations between China and its neighboring countries have entered the “do-or-die” phase. However, North Korea-China economic relations are still at the stage of dawangyanghui (韜光養晦) and are likely to continue their quiet cooperation for the future. China’s embracing of North Korea, despite the current international political and the economic situation can be interpreted as a management decision to minimize risks to its core interests based on socialist homogeneity.
 In response to the changing international political and economic environment, China has moved away from the traditional blood brotherhood and hammer-and-sickle relationship with North Korea to develop a new, forward-looking relationship with the DPRK that is in line with the current international order. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively and comprehensively evaluate the economic relationship between North Korea and China from the perspective of a multilateral relationship as one of the bordering countries facing China, rather than the traditional, unique relationship.