뉴타운 사업의 지정과 해제과정이 인접지역 주택가격에 미치는 영향 - 창신·숭인 뉴타운 지구를 대상으로 -

Abstract

In this study, we aim to analyze price impacts of a Newtown project on nearby housing markets in Changsin Sungin Newtown in Seoul, Korea. Newtown project launched by Seoul Metropolitan Government in 2002, is a neighborhood redevelopment program addressing both housing shortage and deteriorating infrastructure. Using hierarchical linear modeling structured by transaction time, with monthly housing transaction data from January 2006 to April 2016, we investigate the effects of a Newtown project on housing prices within and outside of its boundary along the process of designation to withdrawal. In general, we found a positive influence of Newtown within area. In case of multi-family housing and apartment, the market transaction property value is higher by, on average, 12.2% and 16.6% respectively within the Newtown boundary, and -10.9% and 3.3% in the within -500m boundary, and -7% and -4.6% in the within -100m boundary compared to the specified control group. In transaction-time specific analysis of the effect, we found that the average price of multi-family housing within the Newtown boundary were higher by 30-40% than their counterparts before the Newtown designation, but fell down from that point, then the premium becomes negligible toward the withdrawal. On the other hand, in the 500m boundary we found that average price of multi-family housing were lower by 14-18%, but it rose up from the start(2006.1) to withdrawal. In case of apartment housing the prices were higher by 5-10% within the Newtown boundary. It also slightly fell down at the announcement of the designation by 10-20% in the 500m boundary(<500m, within 500m zone, excluding the Newtown) and 100m boundary(<1000m, within 1000m zone, excluding the 500m zone).