ПРИЧИННО-СЛЕДСТВЕННЫЕ СВЯЗИ ДИНАМИКИ БРАЧНОГО ВОЗРАСТА И ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ В СВЕТЕ КОРРЕЛЯЦИОННОГО АНАЛИЗА

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the causes of the demographic crisis in modern Russia. The authors, based on the materials of official statistics for 2000-2021, investigated the relationship of fertility rates with the age characteristics of couples entering into marriage. At the same time, a steady decrease in the percentage of the younger age groups (younger than 18 years and aged 18-24 years) and an increase in the older ones (25-34 years and 35+) were revealed. As a result, the average age of grooms in the time interval under consideration has increased from 28 years to 31 years, and brides – from 26 to 30 years, more than half of potential spouses marry, having already passed the peak of fertility. The situation is complicated by the unwillingness of spouses of younger age groups to procreate in the short term. Correlation analysis showed that the birth of children in the first 3 years after marriage occurs mainly in the age group of 25-34 years. The revealed trends have negative consequences both for the overall fertility rates and for the health of future generations. At the same time, the absolute majority of births still occur in families, despite the crisis state of the institution of marriage in modern society. The successful implementation of the Concept of State Family Policy approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2014 is critically important for the normalization of the demographic situation.