Новые возможности и новые риски устойчивого развития российской Арктики в условии климатических изменений

Abstract

The Arctic climate has been changing dramatically in recent years. This external condition, on the one hand, increases the risk of sustainable development of the Arctic; on the other hand, in combination with the management factors of the Russian Federation’s Arctic zone, it provides new development oppor-tunities. Based on the authors’ methodology, the paper assesses the efficiency of sustainable development management of the Arctic by comparing the costs of environmental protection and the volume of pollutants entering the Arctic ecosystems. The study showed that, despite the growth of current expenditures on sustainable development management in the Arctic, their use cannot be considered fully effective and efficient: financial investments do not always lead to a reduction in pollution; investments in sustainable development are uneven and depend on the current conjuncture. Changes in the Arctic climate were assessed by comparing indicators for the period from 1971 to the present, characterizing air temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea and river ice, permafrost, etc. The analysis revealed an accelerated growth of Arctic climate change indicators. The impact of climate change on new opportunities and new risks for the sustainable development of the Russian Arctic was determined on the basis of authors’ research and correlated with the opinion of authoritative Arctic researchers. Based on the results of the study, the positive and negative effects of the implementation of new opportunities for the Arctic territories in the context of climate change have been identified.