Сценарии развития ключевых отраслей экономики Мурманской области в контексте глобальных изменений в Арктике

Abstract

This article presents forecast of the future development of the key industries of the Murmansk region under the climate change conditions, and developments that can be used as the background for discussing measures for adaptation to climate changes and producing long-term documents. We have revealed a wide range of scenarios to identify the uncertainties that the region will inevitably face and that should be taken into account when making decisions already now. We have used the forecasting method taking into account the two critical parameters: the climate change on the regional level and the global trends in the socio-economic development. The narratives from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been used as boundary conditions for creating scenarios of Murmansk region development. The local experts - representatives of industries, regional and local authorities, non-governmental and scientific organizations were involved in the forecasting process. The foresight research methodology was chosen because it is more than a long-term and strategic planning and forecasting corresponds to the social progress, in particular, the society democratization in its main areas: engaging citizens to managing the state affairs and creating conditions for manifestation of their initiatives. As a result, the issues of forecasting the future trends and challenges in the key sectors of the economy of the Arctic under the changing climate, depending on the forecast global development trends were considered. The necessity of using a structured, coherent to the global trends approach to working out regional and corporate development strategies is substantiated. On the example of the Murmansk region, the possible scenarios of development of the mining industry, and energy and human potentials depending on the global changes, including the climate change are considered.