Abstract
Based on the long-term time series of observations at the weather stations in the Leningrad oblast, current changes in monthly mean air temperatures and precipitation, as well as in the agroclimatic characteristics of the growing season are assessed using statistical models of nonstationary means. The spatial distribution of these changes is determined. The most suitable physical and mathematical climate model is selected based on the comparison of observational data with the results of the CMIP historical experiment. Based on the identified systematic model errors, the scenario values of air temperature and precipitation are corrected, and the agroclimatic characteristics until the end of the 21st century for different parts of the region are obtained on their basis. An estimated future yield and recommendations for the output of the most promising agricultural products are given.
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