Емпіричний аналіз грошових переказів трудових мігрантів в Україну: основні тенденції та економічні наслідки

Abstract

The article examines the complex impact of both war and migration processes on the demographic and economic situation in Ukraine. Emphasis is placed on the fact that the conflict that has been going on since 2014 and the migration crisis inherent in it have led to a significant decrease in the population due to large-scale migration flows. It is predicted that by 2050 the population of Ukraine may decrease to 35.2 million people, which will create serious challenges for the economy and social sphere. According to the data provided in the article, the number of remittances from abroad to Ukraine is growing, which indicates the intensive development of migration flows and the growth of the economic contribution of immigrants. However, the actual volume of such remittances is likely to be higher than indicated in official data due to the presence of unregistered flows. Remittances reflect not only migrants’ financial contributions to the economy, but also the level of connection and support that migrants provide to their families and communities in Ukraine. Compared to the inflow of foreign direct investment, an understanding of how migration flows affect the country’s economy both through financial contributions and through other socioeconomic aspects is presented. The article calls for the development of effective strategies to overcome the challenges posed by war and migration processes. Important components of such strategies are ensuring economic growth and social well-being of the population, as well as rational management of migration flows to maximize the positive impact of migration on the economy and society of Ukraine.