КЛЮЧОВІ ФАКТОРИ ЕСКАЛАЦІЇ БЕЗПЕКОВОЇ СИТУАЦІЇ В СХІДНІЙ ЄВРОПІ ТА ЗАГРОЗИ ДЕРЖАВНИМ ІНТЕРЕСАМ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article reveals the main patterns and problems that led to the violation of international security and the beginning of military aggression against Ukraine. It assesses domestic and foreign policy factors that are approaching escalation, including inconsistencies in NATO’s approach to Eastern European enlargement, underestimation of the Kremlin’s neo-imperialist revanchist ambitions, short-sighted EU energy policy for their practical implementation, the military path along with economic blackmail. In some places, the prevalence of individual intentions of individual political forces in the struggle for the electorate put in the background the strategic issue of defending national interests. The weakness of the system of exercising state power leads to a decrease in the country’s defense potential and neglect of real threats, which took place in Ukraine until 2014. The study concludes that the necessary vector of key actors is needed to remedy the current situation, as the threat from Russia is becoming a permanent to regional stability and international security. As the existing mechanisms for resolving security challenges have not proved successful in protecting non-NATO countries, Allies are obliged to work towards developing practical security guarantees for Ukraine and, in the long run, other countries in the post-Soviet space that do not have intentions to be in the orbit of the Kremlin. A potential security document cannot be a formalized memorandum without a detailed procedure for dealing with a critical situation and should include preventive response mechanisms. In the worst case, the situation in Eastern Europe will not be balanced. Until the Kremlin feels the ability of the collective West to respond to the Russian regime’s «crossing the red line» and sees a lack of full consolidation of NATO countries, attempts to gain control of Ukraine will continue and are likely to extend to Central Asia, Belarus and Belarus. Europe and the United States must understand that Russian aggression is not a situational display, but a directed approach to achieving military-political goals, the conditions for which have been formed over the years.